Status Quo Vadis 

It seems to me that people fail to realize, regarding NASA’s exploration initiative, that the status quo is not an option.
Sen. Kit Bond demonstrated this during Senate hearings yesterday on NASA’s FY2005 budget request, which includes funds to being the planetary exploration program.
"One could question if now is the time to begin the full implementation, or if it would be more prudent to wait a year and let NASA decide what is needed to accomplish the goals set out by the president," Bond said during the hearings. He later went on to say, "You will have to go a long way to convince me a four-year gap in U.S. manned space flight is sound policy."
Um… OK.
So he believes that the U.S. needs to hold off on development of its next manned spacecraft, but can’t afford to have a time when it doesn’t have a manned spacecraft. We need a delay, but can’t afford a delay.
What Bond and others fail to realize is that continuing with Shuttle and Station indefinitely is simply not an option. NASA must begin preparing for the future (Ironically, a point that Congress hammered on endlessly just last year).
While there is discussion that use of Shuttle might be continued slightly beyond the proposed 2010 date, that continuation could not last for long, and carries with it additional risk. And, of course, even if NASA is essentially forced by Congress to continue flying the Shuttle, there’s little doubt who would get stuck with the blame if something goes wrong.
Of course, when you’re talking about a “gap in U.S. manned spaceflight,” you really need to define your terms. Under the exploration initiative outline, there would be no substantial period of time that NASA would not have a human presence in space, thanks to ISS. You could say that using other people’s launch vehicles to fly to an orbiting spacecraft you own part of doesn’t count as having “manned spaceflight,” but Europe and Japan, among others, would likely disagree.
However, Station does have a limited lifespan. If development of CEV is delayed too much, there is a risk that the U.S. would end up in a period where there is no Shuttle to launch U.S. astronauts, nor a Station for them to travel to. If that happens, there would be a gap in U.S. manned spaceflight.
At this point, doing nothing is simply not an option. We must prepare for the future.

:: :: 10:30 :: David :: [permalink] ::